Post by John Doe on Mar 14, 2016 8:28:45 GMT -7
Ryan plan to slash Medicaid will cost the economy nearly two million private sector jobs
Currently, Medicaid provides comprehensive health coverage to the elderly, disabled, children, and low-income adults.[1] The cost of providing health care coverage is split between the federal government and the states. House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R.-Wisc.) released a budget resolution this week that would “block grant” Medicaid, meaning that it would give states a fixed amount of money rather than provide a fixed share of the total costs. Because these grants would grow more slowly than the expected inflation rate for health care costs, this proposal would have the federal government shift an increasing amount of the coverage costs onto states, who will be in turn forced to cut health benefits and other services, cut public investments such as education and transportation, or raise taxes.
Assuming states responded by cutting Medicaid benefits, this plan would certainly inflict enormous hardship on the most vulnerable populations in society by depriving them of access to basic health care.[2] But it would also have a significant jobs impact.
Over the next five years (during which time CBO projects that the economy will still be below potential), Chairman Ryan’s Medicaid proposal would cut the program by $207 billion, which includes both eliminating the Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act and even deeper cuts to the Medicaid program. Using a standard macroeconomic model that is consistent with private- and public-sector forecasters, we find that a $207 billion cut would result in a loss of 2.1 million jobs over the next five years, or 2.9 million full-time equivalent jobs.[3] These figures are in job-years, which refer to a job held for a single year, meaning that five jobs lost in a single year is the equivalent to one job lost over five years.
Furthermore, the job loss would overwhelmingly be in the private economy. Medicaid has very low overhead, as about 96% of the program’s funds go toward benefits which are spent in the private sector. Assuming the 96% ratio is relatively constant across states (or at least not systematically biased in one direction), Medicaid cuts of this magnitude would result in the loss of just under 2 million private-sector jobs, or 2.8 million full-time equivalent jobs.
This estimate is conservative for two reasons. First, because Medicaid is a program that generally benefits low-income households—who out of necessity are much more likely to consume rather than save—a larger-than-normal share of these cuts will undermine demand in the private sector. This suggests that the cut to Medicaid would have an even larger impact on the economy than we estimate here. Second, it is likely that an even larger share of the job loss would fall on the private sector because overhead includes not only labor but equipment and supplies as well, which are provided by private companies.
The economy still reels from the largest recession since the Great Depression. Over 24 million workers are either unemployed or underemployed—nearly double the 2007 level. In terms of simple joblessness, we are 11.1 million jobs short of pre-recession unemployment levels after factoring in population growth. Getting back to those levels in three years would require that the economy add 400,000 each month—almost twice the amount added last month—for the next 36 months straight. Congress should act now to create jobs, not drive the economy even further into a ditch by slashing basic health care access to children, the elderly, and the disabled.
Assuming states responded by cutting Medicaid benefits, this plan would certainly inflict enormous hardship on the most vulnerable populations in society by depriving them of access to basic health care.[2] But it would also have a significant jobs impact.
Over the next five years (during which time CBO projects that the economy will still be below potential), Chairman Ryan’s Medicaid proposal would cut the program by $207 billion, which includes both eliminating the Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act and even deeper cuts to the Medicaid program. Using a standard macroeconomic model that is consistent with private- and public-sector forecasters, we find that a $207 billion cut would result in a loss of 2.1 million jobs over the next five years, or 2.9 million full-time equivalent jobs.[3] These figures are in job-years, which refer to a job held for a single year, meaning that five jobs lost in a single year is the equivalent to one job lost over five years.
Furthermore, the job loss would overwhelmingly be in the private economy. Medicaid has very low overhead, as about 96% of the program’s funds go toward benefits which are spent in the private sector. Assuming the 96% ratio is relatively constant across states (or at least not systematically biased in one direction), Medicaid cuts of this magnitude would result in the loss of just under 2 million private-sector jobs, or 2.8 million full-time equivalent jobs.
This estimate is conservative for two reasons. First, because Medicaid is a program that generally benefits low-income households—who out of necessity are much more likely to consume rather than save—a larger-than-normal share of these cuts will undermine demand in the private sector. This suggests that the cut to Medicaid would have an even larger impact on the economy than we estimate here. Second, it is likely that an even larger share of the job loss would fall on the private sector because overhead includes not only labor but equipment and supplies as well, which are provided by private companies.
The economy still reels from the largest recession since the Great Depression. Over 24 million workers are either unemployed or underemployed—nearly double the 2007 level. In terms of simple joblessness, we are 11.1 million jobs short of pre-recession unemployment levels after factoring in population growth. Getting back to those levels in three years would require that the economy add 400,000 each month—almost twice the amount added last month—for the next 36 months straight. Congress should act now to create jobs, not drive the economy even further into a ditch by slashing basic health care access to children, the elderly, and the disabled.